Is An Economic Recession On The Way?

Is An Economic Recession On The Way - MoneyExaminers.com

How close are we to the next U.S. economic failure? The reply is that we could be very close. The stock markets are trading at record highs.

Credit card debt and other loan debts by individual Americans and the federal government are at record levels and there is a ton of doubt about President Trump and his administrative team. An economic recession is on the way.


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Economic Recession Coming

While on the campaign trail, Trump promised the world to the citizens of America such as a better healthcare system, less exuberant spending by the administration, corporate tax cuts, and tax cuts for American citizens.

But it looks like President Trump wants to spend more of his invested time on the Twitter website starting fights. Instead, he should be taking care of the tasks at hand.

Yes, some promises made by President Trump did come true. One of the promises kept concerned lush spending by the administration. Some of President Trump’s team members do not receive compensation or a salary.

Team members who do not receive a salary are Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, and Reed Cordish.

However, with there being three savings on the Trump administration, he is overspending in other ways such as the price for security for him and his family.

These security details include golfing over the weekend at his Florida resort and trips to his residence in New York.

Unpredictability Of The Trump Administration Looms

Another reason why Trump could make the economy fail is because of the unpredictability of him and his administration. There have been several administration officials that have left the Trump team. This has occurred because Trump did not get along with them or there has been some offense that has happened.

As for President Trumps love of the media, the discontent still grows.

“It is a totally dishonest and unfair article, written by a politically irrelevant website,” Trump’s EVP and Special Counsel Michael Cohen told TheWrap. “From the moment the reporter entered the vehicle to the time he left Mar-a-Lago, his only goal was to write a negative piece.”

Since the last recession in 2008, the government unemployment rate has improved dramatically. In September 2009, the unemployment rate was 9.8%.

In September 2017, it is 4.2%. Of course, this is great because it means a smaller percentage of individuals are unemployed. (Source: “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, last accessed October 31, 2017.)

However, there are a few misconceptions. The first being the percentage of individuals not actually looking for work.

Back in September 2009, the number of eligible workers looking for work was 65.1%. In September 2017, the involvement rate has fallen to 63.1%. (Source: “Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, last accessed October 31, 2017.)

Having a lower employment involvement rate means that fewer individuals are actively searching for work and will not add to the economy.

Individuals stop searching for a job due to becoming a full-time student, sickness or disabilities, early retirement, or a structural change occurring in the employment picture.

Americans Carrying More Debt And Earning Less

According to recent studies Americans are carrying more debt than ever before, while bringing home a huge amount less money than ever before.

MoneyExaminers went out into the fray to find out what is driving the change. We found that the answer is two-fold.

For sure it’s the youngsters, right? Darn those kids. First, they eat you out of house and home, then they won’t get off of your lawn, and now they’re sending the country into rack and ruin with the spendthrift ways.

Except they aren’t. The biggest demographic of people who are carrying a higher debt load than in years past is…people from 50 to 65 years of age.

What are we doing now, that we didn’t do before?

Well, it has to do with our homes. Four out of five folks 52 and up own their home, a rate that hasn’t budged for decades.

But what is changing is the levels of indebtedness. According to recently published research by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, debt is rising for older Americans, and that increase is led by mortgage debt.

More than 4 million retirees, and 30 percent of all older homeowners, have mortgages to pay every month, which can severely hurt their monthly budgets, especially on a fixed income.

The median amount owed is currently $79,400, which has nearly doubled over the past decade.

Elderly and near-elderly homeowners with a mortgage lay out almost three times as much on housing costs each month as those whose homes are paid off. And they are subject to the risk of foreclosure if they fall behind on their note.

For most of these folks the original note is all but paid off. Home equity loans (which used to be called by the less attractive name “second mortgages”) are driving this portion of the debt load.

The temptation is strong to renovate something in its entirety. To tear out the old and bring in the new feels almost cleansing. Goodness knows those cabinets could use replacing. Bring on the loan officer.

But we said that there are two answers to the debt equation. Can we finally blame the kids? Yes…kind of. As the average price of a new car grows past a number that begins with a three, car loan folks are getting creative with the monthly payment.

Back in the day, we were counseled to never borrow more on a car than you could pay off in three years. Then, as cars proved to be better built for the long haul that yearly number was bumped up to four.

New car loans are now available with payments stretching out for eight years! That shiny new ride will still have a payment on it when it turns 100 on the odometer, and the headliner is falling around your neck.

Economic Recession, Inevitable?

All these stimuli affect the U.S. economy in a bad way because businesses will not be employing top talent.

For example, when a business seeks to hire and is taking resumes, top talent may not apply. If a person is furthering their education, it means there is a possibility of acquiring skills in a field that they choose to enter.

“The impact of all things racial has left neighborhoods divided and segregated and that leads to a perpetuation of things like poverty and lack of opportunity,” said James, adding he would “have to disagree [with anyone] who says that the real African American unemployment situation is 5.9%”.

In many ways related to the economy, things are not getting better.

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